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Dealmaker is Really A “Stealmaker”


China’s Export Tsunami Could Rewrite Global Trade Before Trump-Xi Showdown

Khac Phu Nguyen

Tue, September 23, 2025 at 7:43 AM CDT·2 min read

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This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

Chinese exporters have refused to blink in the face of President Trump’s tariffs that reached as high as 145%. Instead, Beijing’s manufacturing base has redirected output with surprising force: India recorded an all-time high for purchases in August, shipments to Africa are on track for a record year, and sales to Southeast Asia have surpassed their pandemic-era levels. Analysts note that the pivot is propelling China toward a possible $1.2 trillion trade surplus, even though profits at industrial firms slipped 1.7% in the first seven months. The volume surge is keeping factories humming, but the reliance on price cuts is intensifying deflationary pressure at home.

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The global reaction has been cautious but watchful. Mexico has floated tariffs as steep as 50% on Chinese cars, auto parts, and steel, while India has received dozens of requests to probe dumping practices. Indonesia’s trade ministry stepped in after viral clips showed Chinese sellers offering jeans for under $1, sparking outrage among local producers. Yet, many governments appear reluctant to escalate tensions with Beijing while already engaged in tariff negotiations with Washington. Some, such as South Africa, have favored fresh investment over penalties, while others in Latin America, including Chile and Ecuador, have quietly imposed targeted fees. Brazil, despite earlier threats, granted BYD (BYDDF) a tariff-free window to ramp up production, illustrating how Beijing’s blend of diplomacy and economic leverage is shaping outcomes.

For markets, the strategic landscape remains fluid. Trump has been pressing NATO allies to consider tariffs of up to 100% on Chinese goods, while Xi has urged BRICS nations to unite against protectionism. A weaker yuan and the Fed’s latest rate cut have also sharpened China’s export edge. Electric vehicle shipments valued at over $19 billion have held steady against last year’s pace, and Apple’s pivot to India has paradoxically lifted Chinese parts exports. Analysts suggest China could continue shifting goods toward Europe, Australia, and BRICS partners, limiting the fallout from lost US orders. All of this builds toward a high-stakes Trump-Xi summit in South Korea, where a fragile 90-day tariff truce may define the next stage of the trade confrontation. View comments (12)

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Tariffs hit China’s tech trade in America, but the rest of the world kept buying

Huileng Tan

Mon, September 22, 2025 at 9:28 AM CDT·2 min read

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https://s.yimg.com/rx/ev/builds/1.10.5/pframe.html
  • China’s tech exports to the US have fallen 70% since the fourth quarter due to President Trump’s tariffs.
  • Other Asian countries, like South Korea and Vietnam, are exporting much more to the US.
  • Global demand for AI products remains strong, boosting Asia’s tech exports overall.

China’s tech exports to the US have cratered, but demand from the rest of the world is keeping the East Asian giant’s trade machine humming.

In August, Chinese shipments of tech products to the US plunged 70% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, according to a Goldman Sachs analysis published Sunday.

The collapse followed the rollout of President Donald Trump’s new tariffs, including a 20% “fentanyl tariff” on all Chinese imports that took effect in March.

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Meanwhile, other Asian economies filled the gap. From the fourth quarter through August, tech exports to the US from countries like South Korea, Vietnam, and India jumped 80%, according to Goldman.

Outside the US, Chinese tech exports didn’t suffer the same fate. Demand in Europe, Asia, and emerging markets kept growing.

“Tech exports to non-US destinations showed little difference between China and the rest of Asia, with tech exports from both performing similarly well compared to other sectors,” wrote Goldman’s analysts.

In July, China and the rest of Asia’s tech exports to non-US markets rose about 20% relative to the fourth quarter of 2024, “reflecting strength in global tech demand,” Goldman’s analysts wrote.

The tariffs underscore how Washington’s trade war is reshaping supply chains and driving high-tech decoupling with China.

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But the divergence also reflects a bigger trend: a steady reordering of tech supply chains that accelerated during the pandemic and has been reinforced by Washington’s trade policies.

In 2017, nearly half of the US’s critical tech imports came directly from China. By 2025, that figure has fallen below 20%, Goldman estimated.

Taiwan, Mexico, Japan, India, and Vietnam have gained market share in the process.

Asia AI exports boom

Despite the pressure on China, Asia is thriving in the AI-fueled export boom.

Overall exports from the region rose 7% in dollar terms through August compared to a year earlier, Goldman said. Technology products accounted for more than 60% of those gains.

Taiwan has been the breakout winner, with over 70% of its exports coming from tech — the highest share in Asia.

In August, Taiwan’s exports surged 30% from the fourth quarter of 2024, powered by advanced chips and servers that are critical for AI data centers.

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Goldman’s analysts wrote that they expect the reshuffling to continue.

“Tech supply chains will likely continue to shift, further driving high-tech decoupling between the US and China and reconfiguring of Asia’s trade within and outside the region,” they wrote.

Read the original article on Business Insider View comments (7)

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Hardest-hit Vietnam risks losing $25 billion from US tariffs, UN estimates

Francesco Guarascio

Sun, September 21, 2025 at 10:59 PM CDT·3 min read

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A container is loaded onto a cargo ship while docked at Hai Phong port in Vietnam

By Francesco Guarascio

HANOI (Reuters) -U.S. tariffs imposed in August risk slashing up to one-fifth of Vietnam’s exports to the United States, making it the worst-hit country in Southeast Asia, according to estimates by the United Nations Development Programme.

Vietnam was the world’s sixth-largest exporter to America last year with $136.5 billion worth of shipped goods, U.S. trade data show. Those goods are largely produced in factories run by U.S. and foreign multinational companies or their suppliers.

In a worst-case scenario of very high tariff-driven U.S. inflation, the 20% duties levied on Vietnamese goods could cause its U.S. exports to fall “over time by more than 25 billion dollars, nearly one fifth of the yearly total,” Philip Schellekens, UNDP chief economist for the Asia-Pacific region, told Reuters.

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Vietnam’s finance and industry ministries did not immediately reply to requests for comment.

The first comprehensive Vietnamese data released since tariffs took effect on August 7 show Vietnam’s exports to the United States, its biggest market, fell by 2% in August from July, with a 5.5% drop for footwear, of which Vietnam is the world’s second-largest supplier, according to the customs department. That followed a surge in exports before tariffs.

The World Bank revised down Vietnam’s growth forecasts for this year after the U.S. tariffs took effect.

Nike, Adidas and Puma, which produce a large part of their global output of shoes through suppliers in Vietnam, declined to comment.

VIETNAM HIT HARDEST

The 19.2% potential fall in Vietnamese exports to America would be nearly twice as high as the average 9.7% possible drop in exports from Southeast Asia, the most impacted region in the continent and a major industrial hub, according to a UNDP report released last week, one of the first public estimates of the hit on trade flows since the tariffs took effect.

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“No country in Southeast Asia is more exposed to U.S. tariff hikes than Vietnam,” said Schellekens, noting only China in East Asia would be hit harder in dollar terms.

Among large Southeast Asian nations, Thailand’s U.S. exports could fall 12.7%, Malaysia’s 10.4% and Indonesia’s 6.4%, the UNDP report said.

The estimated fall of U.S. exports would shave roughly 5% from Vietnam’s Gross Domestic Product, although the tariff impact could take years to fully materialise, and was likely to be mitigated by exporters’ absorption of some costs, Vietnam’s diversification to other regions and bigger domestic spending.

The UNDP estimates are based on a scenario in which duties would be entirely passed through to U.S. consumers, damping demand, which so far has not happened as the impact on U.S. inflation has been moderate.

The UNDP did not take into account either the possible effect of 40% tariffs on goods transhipped through Vietnam, which could have a devastating impact if Washington decided to set strict limits on foreign components used in exported items, given Vietnam’s goods highly rely on Chinese input.

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The UNDP data did not factor in current tariff exemptions on consumer electronics which account for about 28% of Vietnam’s total exports to America. However, even if Washington upheld those waivers, Vietnam’s U.S. exports could still fall by $18 billion, Schellekens said.

(Reporting by Francesco Guarascio; Additional reporting by Khanh Vu; Editing by Stephen Coates) View comments (70)

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Over 70% of H-1B visa holders are Indian citizens. Its government says Trump jacking the fee to $100,000 is ‘likely to have humanitarian consequences’

Dave Smith

Mon, September 22, 2025 at 8:54 AM CDT·4 min read

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President Donald Trump speaks before signing executive orders in the Oval Office at the White House on September 19, 2025 in Washington, DC. Trump signed two executive orders, establishing the “Trump Gold Card” and introducing a $100,000 fee for H-1B visas.

India’s Ministry of External Affairs issued a response Saturday to President Donald Trump’s decision to impose a $100,000 fee on H-1B visa applications, warning on X that the move could create “humanitarian consequences” by disrupting families, calling for the United States to address these concerns.

The statement came after Trump signed a proclamation Friday imposing the hefty new fee on skilled worker visas, which went into effect on Sunday. The policy represents one of the most dramatic overhauls of the H-1B program in decades, targeting a visa category heavily relied upon by Indian professionals working in America’s technology sector.

“This measure is likely to have humanitarian consequences by way of the disruption caused for families,” the ministry said in its official statement. “Government hopes that these disruptions can be addressed suitably by the US authorities.”

The proclamation sparked immediate chaos across Indian communities and the global tech industry, with thousands of H-1B visa holders scrambling to return to the United States before the new rules took effect. At San Francisco International Airport, The Independent reports that several Indian passengers disembarked from an Emirates flight just minutes before takeoff, because they feared being unable to return to the U.S. under the new policy. A three-hour delay ensued.

India has particular reason for concern about the policy changes: According to the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services, Indian nationals account for 71% of H-1B visa recipients, making them by far the largest beneficiary group. Chinese nationals represent the second-largest group at approximately 12%. The dominance is even more pronounced in technology roles, where over 80% of computer-related H-1B positions are filled by Indian workers.

The new fee structure represents a staggering increase from current H-1B application costs, which range from approximately $1,700 to $4,500. The Trump administration defended the move as necessary to address “systemic abuse” of the H-1B program and protect American workers.

Major U.S. technology companies moved quickly to reassure employees after initial confusion about the policy’s scope. Reuters reports that Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Google—all heavy users of the H-1B program—issued urgent advisories clarifying the $100,000 fee applies only to new visa petitions, not existing holders or renewals. The White House later confirmed that current H-1B visa holders can continue to travel in and out of the United States as before.

According to federal data, Amazon currently has the highest number of H-1B visa holders at over 10,000, followed by Indian IT giant Tata Consultancy Services, with approximately 5,500. Other major beneficiaries include Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Google, each with over 4,000 H-1B visa holders. But Alan Patricof, the private-equity investor and founder of Greycroft Partners, told the NYT, “there is not a single company that I have invested in the last 10 years that could afford to pay this.”

The policy comes amid broader tensions in U.S.-India relations following Trump’s imposition of punitive tariffs on Indian exports earlier this year. The president implemented a 25% “reciprocal” tariff on Indian goods, followed by an additional 25% penalty tied to India’s continued purchases of Russian oil, shocking Indian counterparties and bringing total duties to 50%.

India’s commerce minister Piyush Goyal is scheduled to visit Washington on Monday for trade talks, highlighting ongoing efforts to reset the relationship between the two nations. The timing of the H-1B announcement just days before these crucial negotiations adds another layer of complexity to the diplomatic discussions.

In its statement, India’s foreign ministry emphasized the mutual benefits of skilled talent mobility between the two countries. “Skilled talent mobility and exchanges have contributed enormously to technology development, innovation, economic growth, competitiveness and wealth creation in the United States and India,” the ministry said. “Policy makers will therefore assess recent steps taking into account mutual benefits, which include strong people-to-people ties between the two countries.”

The ministry also noted that Indian industry has begun analyzing the full implications of the policy changes and is expected to work with U.S. counterparts on finding solutions. India’s National Association of Software and Service Companies warned the abrupt implementation timeline could have “ripple effects on America’s innovation ecosystem and the wider job economy.”

For Indian IT services companies, the financial impact could be substantial. According to the Times of India, firms like TCS, Infosys, HCL Technologies, and Wipro could see their operating profits reduced by 7%-15% due to the new fees.

The proclamation is set to remain in effect for 12 months unless extended, and legal challenges are expected. The policy also directs the Department of Labor to raise wage requirements for H-1B workers and signals additional reforms to prioritize higher-paid, higher-skilled applications in the visa lottery system.

The Elected Terrorist Inside America


Finger pointer, vacillating uninformed name caller, with a possible stolen college degree elected to lead based on assumed business prowess based in subterfuge and theft. Brief description of current resident of the country’s house. The daily coverage of this Resident and his deplorables is enough to deliver mental anguish to us all. The results of this anguish can and has shut many of us down as it has become too tedious to hear and observe. We should all (non-followers) remember we can change the tide next year and begin the road to recovery. There are “RED” states planning to redraw districts that suits their agenda and party, our resistance and education is the key to regaining control of our government and our country. Keep in mind the actions of this resident in the hundreds of executive orders which do not favor the public, the pardons of felons who are now released upon us and the appointments of unqualified cabinet members, who look good on television and will do his bidding.

We have the political equivalent of a televangelist with a powerful platform that has the potential to ruin the country! I am dismayed by our Congressional inability to rein in the rampant Governance by vocal edict from a Clearly inept Bully. It is clear that this administration’s objective is to pursue an agenda based on the everchanging proclamations and random thoughts of an adoration seeking child! If the voters of America cannot see behind the curtain of political rhetoric that assails us daily, then we could be in for an uphill slog to recover America. THERE IS NO RED OR BLUE IN THIS!, this just an American voter’s issue which only the voters can correct! Stir It Up!

Speaker Johnson unveils health care plan as divided Republicans scramble for alternative


Associated Press

Gop On The verge of doing something right?

KEVIN FREKING and LISA MASCARO

Updated Fri, December 12, 2025

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Senate failed to get anywhere on the health care issue this week. Now it’s the House’s turn to show what it can do.

Speaker Mike Johnson unveiled a Republican alternative late Friday, a last-minute sprint as his party refuses to extend the enhanced tax subsidies for those who buy policies through the Affordable Care Act, also called Obamacare, which are expiring at the end of the year. Those subsidies help lower the cost of coverage.

Johnson, R-La., huddled behind closed doors in the morning — as he did days earlier this week — working to assemble the package for consideration as the House focuses the final days of its 2025 work on health care.

“House Republicans are tackling the real drivers of health care costs to provide affordable care,” Johnson said in a statement announcing the package. He said it would be voted on next week.

Time is running out for Congress to act. Democrats engineered the longest federal government shutdown ever this fall in a failed effort to force Republicans to the negotiating table on health care. But after promising votes, the Senate failed this week to advance both a Republican health care plan and the Democratic-offered bill to extend the tax credits for three years.

Now, with just days to go, Congress is about to wrap up its work with no consensus solution in sight.

What Republicans are proposing

The House Republicans offered a 100-plus page package that focuses on long-sought GOP proposals to enhance access to employer-sponsored health insurance plans and clamp down on so-called pharmacy benefit managers.

Republicans propose expanding access to what’s referred to as association health plans, which would allow more small businesses and self-employed individuals to band together and purchase health coverage.

Proponents say such plans increase the leverage businesses have to negotiate a lower rate. But critics say the plans provide skimpier coverage than what is required under the Affordable Care Act.

The Republicans’ proposal would also require more data from pharmacy benefit managers, or PBMs, as a way to help control drug costs. Critics say PBMs have padded their bottom line and made it more difficult for independent pharmacists to survive.

Comment from provider: After 10 years the GOP is finally thinking about their constituents, this is a sad state when the leadership is too afraid of a “child” to take care of their constituents who should always take precedent! MA

The Exotics.


The Exotics: Nero, Caligula and Trumpelstilskin

Time produces folks of the same mental space regularly, but we usually do not hear about them until their actions become egregious and murderous. Abetted (sometimes) by a governing bloc these “exotics lose all sense of reality since they live pretty much in their own heads. The insides of their heads would lay out like a bag of cats (sorry cat lovers), a lot of meowing and scratching! When the contents erupt no one understands or believes the utterances and statements that issue forth. Fact is those outputs are as dangerous as a 5-year-old with cherry bombs and a box of matches.

“Trumpel” Purposely Selected Flawed Cabinet Members?


We are aware that “Trumpel’s” choices for Government service are sycophants and generally flawed individuals who have been selected for fealty rather than ability, yet we (some of us) still miss the point that he needs to go except the second in command is no better and possibly worse. The real “power” behind the throne is: (I suspect) is Stephen Miller aka “Himmler/Goebbels” clone. With history being diluted at best and erased at worst, we need to pay particular attention this regimes actions as it does not differ between red and blue!

Surprise? Trumpel’s Congressional Allies Taken Aback?


An Indiana Republican state senator announced Nov. 28 that he will vote against the state’s redistricting following President Donald Trump’s use of a slur in a Thanksgiving social media post.

Trump’s Nov. 27 Truth Social post ‒ one in a series of anti-immigrant comments posted Thursday ‒ referred to Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as the “r-word.” Though the word was formerly used in medical contexts, it’s now widely regarded as offensive, and disability advocates seek to end its use.

“Those of you that don’t know me or my family might not know that my daughter has Down Syndrome,” state Sen. Mike Bohacek, R-Michiana Shores, wrote on Facebook. “This is not the first time our president has used these insulting and derogatory references and his choices of words have consequences.”

Trump has pushed for several states, including Indiana, to redraw congressional maps to create more safe Republican districts ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

No Boundaries?


The current administration is following the path of no return in its running of the government. There are many norms and accepted practices that no longer apply. The so-called American Dream has become a Nightmare without a “wake up”. The vengeful child has control of the country via the weak GOP who once was a powerful force for American values. This politically powerful group has forgotten the oath of office taken when elected and ceded its power to the “child”. At this time there appears to be no control in government as the founders had put in place. The real control of government has been quietly usurped by groups or a group of powerful people who saw a way to put their hands deeply in government through a “useful tools” ego.

It is sad that so many voters have been led to believe what is being done to other Americans (or other nations for that matter) is somehow other worldly and will not affect them. It is sad that so many forget the lessons of the past and still rely on the words of shady charismatic characters who offer words with no substance. The evidence is clear that the resident is a loose cannon being used as a” “useful idiot” by his own party and his “handpicked” Whitehouse staff and cabinet. Even “jar Jar Binks” recognized his limitations not so with the current “Nerolistic” occupant of the “peoples house”! It only requires a cursory glance at history to understand that a mistake was made in electing a “nihilist” as leader of one the most powerful countries in the world. The machinations of this regime is based on ego and past or current “hurt” feelings!

For the folks who read and understand the current politics or have the ability to see through the fog of lies and deceit the Franklin quote should be a wakeup call.

  1. The story: As delegates left the Constitutional Convention, a woman asked Franklin if the new government was a republic or a monarchy. Franklin famously replied, “A republic, madam, if you can keep it,” implying that maintaining the new form of government would be a continuous challenge requiring civic engagement. 
  2. The meaning: The quote suggests that a republic is not a permanent state but something that must be actively protected and maintained by its people. It underscores the importance of vigilance, civic duty, and the people’s role in holding the government accountable. 
  3. Historical context: The quote has become a well-known and relevant statement, particularly during times of political division, serving as a reminder of the framers’ intentions and the responsibilities of citizenship. 

As I have stated several times: “Lest we forget”!

Obamacare 2010-present: GOP addressed no issues!


The GOP has decried “Obamacare” since its passage. Instead of putting in time to correct or amend it, they have railed against it in all its forms. The Congressional detractors have taken the parts they like and incorporated it into their own “Cadillac” health plan,while decrying how terrible it is for the people. According to public information many more millions of Americans were and are able to get affordable healthcare. There have been glitches sure enough but overall, no more than any public program. Social security didn’t hit the ground running! The Current administration is using any largely incorrect information to debase the program enjoyed by millions, including the detractors. This has become typical of this “occupier of the office” who has essentially usurped the power of the people and their elected representatives.

The country is being bombarded by illogical and dangerous rhetoric which makes no attempt at hiding the weakness of the Congress against the usurper.

Characteristics Report by USDA Provides Insights Into Who Participates in SNAP


Correct information authored by: By Lauren Walcott and James Ziegeweid,Published June 27, 2025 Congressional Hunger Center Emerson Fellows begins below Fake chart shown on X.

Madeup chart below put out on X totally misleading about SNAP recipents-possible cause of attack on SNAP recipents.

Published June 27, 2025

Annually, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) issues a report on the characteristics of households and individuals participating in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). The most recent report released in April provides details about fiscal year 2023 program participants, and critical insights for lawmakers, advocates, and stakeholders, while simultaneously pushing back against harmful narratives that have been perpetuated about households participating in SNAP.  

Key Takeaways  

  • SNAP provides food assistance to the most vulnerable. The vast majority of individuals participating in the program are children, older adults, or individuals with a disability. The report highlights that 39 percent of participants were children, 20 percent were older adults, and 10 percent were individuals with disabilities. Additionally, 73 percent of households participating in SNAP had a gross monthly income at or below the federal poverty line. In fiscal year 2023, the income level for a family of four at the federal poverty line was $27,750.   
  • SNAP serves people of all racial and ethnic backgrounds. Among program participants, over 35 percent identified as White, nearly 26 percent as African American, nearly 16 percent as Hispanic, 4 percent as Asian, and a little over 1 percent as Native American. It should be noted that 17 percent of participants are listed as “race unknown.”  
  • SNAP helps workers make ends meet. Nearly one-third of SNAP households have earned income. For SNAP households with children, 55 percent had earned income. The average SNAP household’s gross monthly income is $1,059 and net income is $527. 
  • Most SNAP households do not receive cash welfare benefits. Only 3 percent of all SNAP households, and only 7.8 percent of SNAP households with children, receive benefits through the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program. 
  • SNAP lifts households out of poverty. Among households participating in SNAP, 17 percent moved above the federal poverty line when SNAP benefits were included in gross income, and 10 percent of the lowest-income SNAP households moved out of deep poverty. 
  • Despite the many benefits of the program, SNAP benefit levels continue to be woefully inadequate. About 36 percent of SNAP households receive the maximum allotment. The other 64 percent of participating households receive less than the maximum. The average benefit is just $6 per person per day. As described in a prior FRAC analysis, the greatest shortcoming of SNAP is that benefits for most households are not enough to get them through the entire month without hunger or being forced to sacrifice nutrition quality. 

Time and again, SNAP has been found to be a profoundly important program with well-documented benefits for participants and their communities. As shown in this report from USDA, SNAP targets households that are struggling the most, reducing hunger and poverty for millions of people annually.  

For more information about SNAP, visit the SNAP section of FRAC’s website. 

Many fingers in the Federal pie!


(and they are all dirty!)

This misadministration has blatantly shown the variety of ways to dip into the National funds under the guise of governing. (This also could be a snapshot as to the business failures of Trumplelstilskin). First you fill the government offices with sycophants and unqualified seat fillers. Then you create a crisis with trading partners then backdown calling it “a deal”. Next you make unsubstantiated claims of uncommitted crimes to assassinate unproven “drug runners” on the high seas without authorization from Congress. Then you reveal our nuclear arsenal to the world using threats to dictators who are smarter than you. At the end of this term, there will be at minimum 4-8 years to correct the mistakes of 4 years but only if we clean up Congress and the courts. This is a long-term project.