China’s Export Tsunami Could Rewrite Global Trade Before Trump-Xi Showdown
Khac Phu Nguyen
Tue, September 23, 2025 at 7:43 AM CDT·2 min read
This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
Chinese exporters have refused to blink in the face of President Trump’s tariffs that reached as high as 145%. Instead, Beijing’s manufacturing base has redirected output with surprising force: India recorded an all-time high for purchases in August, shipments to Africa are on track for a record year, and sales to Southeast Asia have surpassed their pandemic-era levels. Analysts note that the pivot is propelling China toward a possible $1.2 trillion trade surplus, even though profits at industrial firms slipped 1.7% in the first seven months. The volume surge is keeping factories humming, but the reliance on price cuts is intensifying deflationary pressure at home.
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The global reaction has been cautious but watchful. Mexico has floated tariffs as steep as 50% on Chinese cars, auto parts, and steel, while India has received dozens of requests to probe dumping practices. Indonesia’s trade ministry stepped in after viral clips showed Chinese sellers offering jeans for under $1, sparking outrage among local producers. Yet, many governments appear reluctant to escalate tensions with Beijing while already engaged in tariff negotiations with Washington. Some, such as South Africa, have favored fresh investment over penalties, while others in Latin America, including Chile and Ecuador, have quietly imposed targeted fees. Brazil, despite earlier threats, granted BYD (BYDDF) a tariff-free window to ramp up production, illustrating how Beijing’s blend of diplomacy and economic leverage is shaping outcomes.
For markets, the strategic landscape remains fluid. Trump has been pressing NATO allies to consider tariffs of up to 100% on Chinese goods, while Xi has urged BRICS nations to unite against protectionism. A weaker yuan and the Fed’s latest rate cut have also sharpened China’s export edge. Electric vehicle shipments valued at over $19 billion have held steady against last year’s pace, and Apple’s pivot to India has paradoxically lifted Chinese parts exports. Analysts suggest China could continue shifting goods toward Europe, Australia, and BRICS partners, limiting the fallout from lost US orders. All of this builds toward a high-stakes Trump-Xi summit in South Korea, where a fragile 90-day tariff truce may define the next stage of the trade confrontation. View comments (12)
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Tariffs hit China’s tech trade in America, but the rest of the world kept buying
Huileng Tan
Mon, September 22, 2025 at 9:28 AM CDT·2 min read
- China’s tech exports to the US have fallen 70% since the fourth quarter due to President Trump’s tariffs.
- Other Asian countries, like South Korea and Vietnam, are exporting much more to the US.
- Global demand for AI products remains strong, boosting Asia’s tech exports overall.
China’s tech exports to the US have cratered, but demand from the rest of the world is keeping the East Asian giant’s trade machine humming.
In August, Chinese shipments of tech products to the US plunged 70% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, according to a Goldman Sachs analysis published Sunday.
The collapse followed the rollout of President Donald Trump’s new tariffs, including a 20% “fentanyl tariff” on all Chinese imports that took effect in March.
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Meanwhile, other Asian economies filled the gap. From the fourth quarter through August, tech exports to the US from countries like South Korea, Vietnam, and India jumped 80%, according to Goldman.
Outside the US, Chinese tech exports didn’t suffer the same fate. Demand in Europe, Asia, and emerging markets kept growing.
“Tech exports to non-US destinations showed little difference between China and the rest of Asia, with tech exports from both performing similarly well compared to other sectors,” wrote Goldman’s analysts.
In July, China and the rest of Asia’s tech exports to non-US markets rose about 20% relative to the fourth quarter of 2024, “reflecting strength in global tech demand,” Goldman’s analysts wrote.
The tariffs underscore how Washington’s trade war is reshaping supply chains and driving high-tech decoupling with China.
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But the divergence also reflects a bigger trend: a steady reordering of tech supply chains that accelerated during the pandemic and has been reinforced by Washington’s trade policies.
In 2017, nearly half of the US’s critical tech imports came directly from China. By 2025, that figure has fallen below 20%, Goldman estimated.
Taiwan, Mexico, Japan, India, and Vietnam have gained market share in the process.
Asia AI exports boom
Despite the pressure on China, Asia is thriving in the AI-fueled export boom.
Overall exports from the region rose 7% in dollar terms through August compared to a year earlier, Goldman said. Technology products accounted for more than 60% of those gains.
Taiwan has been the breakout winner, with over 70% of its exports coming from tech — the highest share in Asia.
In August, Taiwan’s exports surged 30% from the fourth quarter of 2024, powered by advanced chips and servers that are critical for AI data centers.
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Goldman’s analysts wrote that they expect the reshuffling to continue.
“Tech supply chains will likely continue to shift, further driving high-tech decoupling between the US and China and reconfiguring of Asia’s trade within and outside the region,” they wrote.
Read the original article on Business Insider View comments (7)
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Hardest-hit Vietnam risks losing $25 billion from US tariffs, UN estimates
Francesco Guarascio
Sun, September 21, 2025 at 10:59 PM CDT·3 min read
By Francesco Guarascio
HANOI (Reuters) -U.S. tariffs imposed in August risk slashing up to one-fifth of Vietnam’s exports to the United States, making it the worst-hit country in Southeast Asia, according to estimates by the United Nations Development Programme.
Vietnam was the world’s sixth-largest exporter to America last year with $136.5 billion worth of shipped goods, U.S. trade data show. Those goods are largely produced in factories run by U.S. and foreign multinational companies or their suppliers.
In a worst-case scenario of very high tariff-driven U.S. inflation, the 20% duties levied on Vietnamese goods could cause its U.S. exports to fall “over time by more than 25 billion dollars, nearly one fifth of the yearly total,” Philip Schellekens, UNDP chief economist for the Asia-Pacific region, told Reuters.
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Vietnam’s finance and industry ministries did not immediately reply to requests for comment.
The first comprehensive Vietnamese data released since tariffs took effect on August 7 show Vietnam’s exports to the United States, its biggest market, fell by 2% in August from July, with a 5.5% drop for footwear, of which Vietnam is the world’s second-largest supplier, according to the customs department. That followed a surge in exports before tariffs.
The World Bank revised down Vietnam’s growth forecasts for this year after the U.S. tariffs took effect.
Nike, Adidas and Puma, which produce a large part of their global output of shoes through suppliers in Vietnam, declined to comment.
VIETNAM HIT HARDEST
The 19.2% potential fall in Vietnamese exports to America would be nearly twice as high as the average 9.7% possible drop in exports from Southeast Asia, the most impacted region in the continent and a major industrial hub, according to a UNDP report released last week, one of the first public estimates of the hit on trade flows since the tariffs took effect.
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“No country in Southeast Asia is more exposed to U.S. tariff hikes than Vietnam,” said Schellekens, noting only China in East Asia would be hit harder in dollar terms.
Among large Southeast Asian nations, Thailand’s U.S. exports could fall 12.7%, Malaysia’s 10.4% and Indonesia’s 6.4%, the UNDP report said.
The estimated fall of U.S. exports would shave roughly 5% from Vietnam’s Gross Domestic Product, although the tariff impact could take years to fully materialise, and was likely to be mitigated by exporters’ absorption of some costs, Vietnam’s diversification to other regions and bigger domestic spending.
The UNDP estimates are based on a scenario in which duties would be entirely passed through to U.S. consumers, damping demand, which so far has not happened as the impact on U.S. inflation has been moderate.
The UNDP did not take into account either the possible effect of 40% tariffs on goods transhipped through Vietnam, which could have a devastating impact if Washington decided to set strict limits on foreign components used in exported items, given Vietnam’s goods highly rely on Chinese input.
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The UNDP data did not factor in current tariff exemptions on consumer electronics which account for about 28% of Vietnam’s total exports to America. However, even if Washington upheld those waivers, Vietnam’s U.S. exports could still fall by $18 billion, Schellekens said.
(Reporting by Francesco Guarascio; Additional reporting by Khanh Vu; Editing by Stephen Coates) View comments (70)
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Over 70% of H-1B visa holders are Indian citizens. Its government says Trump jacking the fee to $100,000 is ‘likely to have humanitarian consequences’
Dave Smith
Mon, September 22, 2025 at 8:54 AM CDT·4 min read
India’s Ministry of External Affairs issued a response Saturday to President Donald Trump’s decision to impose a $100,000 fee on H-1B visa applications, warning on X that the move could create “humanitarian consequences” by disrupting families, calling for the United States to address these concerns.
The statement came after Trump signed a proclamation Friday imposing the hefty new fee on skilled worker visas, which went into effect on Sunday. The policy represents one of the most dramatic overhauls of the H-1B program in decades, targeting a visa category heavily relied upon by Indian professionals working in America’s technology sector.
“This measure is likely to have humanitarian consequences by way of the disruption caused for families,” the ministry said in its official statement. “Government hopes that these disruptions can be addressed suitably by the US authorities.”
The proclamation sparked immediate chaos across Indian communities and the global tech industry, with thousands of H-1B visa holders scrambling to return to the United States before the new rules took effect. At San Francisco International Airport, The Independent reports that several Indian passengers disembarked from an Emirates flight just minutes before takeoff, because they feared being unable to return to the U.S. under the new policy. A three-hour delay ensued.
India has particular reason for concern about the policy changes: According to the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services, Indian nationals account for 71% of H-1B visa recipients, making them by far the largest beneficiary group. Chinese nationals represent the second-largest group at approximately 12%. The dominance is even more pronounced in technology roles, where over 80% of computer-related H-1B positions are filled by Indian workers.
The new fee structure represents a staggering increase from current H-1B application costs, which range from approximately $1,700 to $4,500. The Trump administration defended the move as necessary to address “systemic abuse” of the H-1B program and protect American workers.
Major U.S. technology companies moved quickly to reassure employees after initial confusion about the policy’s scope. Reuters reports that Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Google—all heavy users of the H-1B program—issued urgent advisories clarifying the $100,000 fee applies only to new visa petitions, not existing holders or renewals. The White House later confirmed that current H-1B visa holders can continue to travel in and out of the United States as before.
According to federal data, Amazon currently has the highest number of H-1B visa holders at over 10,000, followed by Indian IT giant Tata Consultancy Services, with approximately 5,500. Other major beneficiaries include Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Google, each with over 4,000 H-1B visa holders. But Alan Patricof, the private-equity investor and founder of Greycroft Partners, told the NYT, “there is not a single company that I have invested in the last 10 years that could afford to pay this.”
The policy comes amid broader tensions in U.S.-India relations following Trump’s imposition of punitive tariffs on Indian exports earlier this year. The president implemented a 25% “reciprocal” tariff on Indian goods, followed by an additional 25% penalty tied to India’s continued purchases of Russian oil, shocking Indian counterparties and bringing total duties to 50%.
India’s commerce minister Piyush Goyal is scheduled to visit Washington on Monday for trade talks, highlighting ongoing efforts to reset the relationship between the two nations. The timing of the H-1B announcement just days before these crucial negotiations adds another layer of complexity to the diplomatic discussions.
In its statement, India’s foreign ministry emphasized the mutual benefits of skilled talent mobility between the two countries. “Skilled talent mobility and exchanges have contributed enormously to technology development, innovation, economic growth, competitiveness and wealth creation in the United States and India,” the ministry said. “Policy makers will therefore assess recent steps taking into account mutual benefits, which include strong people-to-people ties between the two countries.”
The ministry also noted that Indian industry has begun analyzing the full implications of the policy changes and is expected to work with U.S. counterparts on finding solutions. India’s National Association of Software and Service Companies warned the abrupt implementation timeline could have “ripple effects on America’s innovation ecosystem and the wider job economy.”
For Indian IT services companies, the financial impact could be substantial. According to the Times of India, firms like TCS, Infosys, HCL Technologies, and Wipro could see their operating profits reduced by 7%-15% due to the new fees.
The proclamation is set to remain in effect for 12 months unless extended, and legal challenges are expected. The policy also directs the Department of Labor to raise wage requirements for H-1B workers and signals additional reforms to prioritize higher-paid, higher-skilled applications in the visa lottery system.
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