Why Netanyahu Suddenly Wants a Deal on U.S. Aid
GERSHOM GORENBERG JULY 28, 2016
The prime minister, in an attack of good sense, realizes that a GOP
victory may not be good news for Israel.
Here’s one more twist to the Year of Bizarre Politics: Benjamin
Netanyahu, prime minister of Israel and Republican-in-all-but-name, has
recognized that the best deal on American aid he can get is from Barack
Obama.
The timing of this decision, just after the GOP formally nominated a
certain oft-bankrupt businessman and racist agitator for president, may
be a coincidence. People running out of a house just as smoke starts
coming out the windows, I suppose, could also be due to some
coincidence. The more logical explanation is that like many of his
conservative ideologue friends, Netanyahu has concluded that a
Republican victory in November will not bring salvation.
Here’s the plot line up to now: The current 10-year U.S.-Israel
memorandum of understanding on military aid will expire in 2018. It
provides for $3.1 billion per year in American aid for Israel. Congress
has allocated additional funds each year for missile defense, which
creates an opening for ongoing Israeli lobbying.
Negotiations on a new 10-year memorandum of understanding (MOU) began
back in 2013, broke off, and resumed late last year. The administration
has offered a more generous package than the last one, even though the
negotiations are taking place after the Iran accord was signed—and
therefore after Netanyahu threw away the bargaining chip of acquiescing
in the agreement.
But Netanyahu has pressed for better terms. Key points of contention:
Israel originally sought a steep increase to $5 billion per year, in
part to compensate for Iran having more money for conventional weapons
after the agreement ending its nuclear program. According to reports
here in Israel, the administration offer runs between $3.7 billion and
$4 billion annually—including funds for missile defense, and with the
proviso that there will be no additional allocations from Congress and
no lobbying. The administration wants to phase out the provision that
allows Israel to spend over a quarter of the aid in Israel and another
eighth on fuel. In line with the terms of American aid to other
countries, the money would have to be spent in the United States.
Netanyahu opposed the change.
The talks stalled. Back in February, Netanyahu told his cabinet that if
Israel’s needs weren’t met, “perhaps we will … need to come to an
agreement with the next administration.” It was a comment meant to be
leaked, meant to be a threat. This was fairly extraordinary. The leader
of the client state getting the aid portrayed himself as being in the
stronger negotiating position. And he essentially adopted the GOP
position that there’s no need to deal with this president. Real business
could wait till next year, when a Republican might be in the White House.
Let’s note that in February, when Netanyahu said this, the conventional
wisdom was that a reality TV star couldn’t win the Republican
nomination. Netanyahu is all too closely tied in with the Republican
establishment, and I’m sure this is what his friends told him. The
interloper would fade, and one of the mainstream GOP conservatives would
become the nominee.
Oh well, so much for that.
Suddenly, hours before the Republican convention began last week,
Netanyahu said in the Knesset that he hoped to reach an agreement with
the United States “within a few weeks.” A week later, after the last
Republican revolt was suppressed and the reality TV star accepted his
party’s nomination with a dark rant, a statement from Netanyahu dropped
into the inboxes of Israeli journalists. It said that his negotiator,
acting National Security Council head Jacob Nagel, would fly to
Washington this coming Sunday, “for meetings with his White House
counterparts, for the purpose of signing a new MOU between the two
countries as soon as possible.” Meanwhile, reports attributed in ways
that usually mean, “someone senior in the Prime Minister’s Office,” said
that Netanyahu had decided to fold on “most” of the remaining issues and
accept the administration’s conditions. There are still details to work
out, including how many years it will take to phase out Israeli use of
the aid outside the United States. But Netanyahu definitely wants a deal
in a hurry.
Now it’s true that some of Netanyahu’s senior coalition partners thought
he was daft to delay the agreement, and said so publicly. But the timing
suggests that Netanyahu’s shift has a lot more to do with American
politics than Israeli politics.
The Republican nominee is running on the isolationist,
anti-Semitism-stained slogan, “America First.”
The Republican nominee is running on the isolationist,
anti-Semitism-stained slogan, “America First.” He has said that Japan
and South Korea should build their own nukes rather than depending on
America to spend money on helping them. He didn’t mention the Middle
East, but the same pro-proliferation logic could apply to Egypt or other
countries in the region. Vladimir Putin’s favorite American politician
has questioned whether the United States should take action to protect
Estonia, a NATO member. This has to make one wonder what the nominee
thinks of keeping commitments to other allies.
At a press conference in March, He Who I Will Not Name said that Israel
was among the “countries that can pay and they can pay big league” for
American defense. The same day, of course, he reversed himself. He does
that. But it’s not hard to figure out that he’s not a guy you should
count on for an aid package.
Netanyahu’s sudden switch suggests that he can, indeed, work this out.
It seems he has also figured out that Hillary Clinton is likely to be
his negotiating partner if he waits till next year, and that she has no
reason to reward him for blowing off Obama.
Actually, Netanyahu and the Republican nominee have been keeping their
distance. At this time four years ago, Mitt Romney was about to touch
down in Israel, to be so warmly received by Netanyahu that it was
virtually an endorsement. An Israeli official (I hate vague
attributions, but that’s what the source asked for) told me this week
that he was “not aware of any upcoming trips of [American] candidates to
Israel.”
Does this mean that Netanyahu is on the outs with his billionaire
American backer, Sheldon Adelson? In May, Adelson was reported to have
promised up to $100 million to the campaign of his less-successful
fellow casino mogul. More recently, though, it’s been reported that
Adelson has “put his plans on hold.” For now, it’s unclear where he stands.
I won’t make any predictions on how fast Netanyahu and Obama will reach
a deal on aid, or whether the prime minister’s current attack of good
sense will last. Right now, though, it seems that even Benjamin
Netanyahu, who has spent the last seven and a half years publicly
tangling with the president, has realized that he, too, will miss Obama.
Truly, this is a year of unfathomable events.
#######
Prospect Senior Editor Eliza Newlin Carney contributed information to
this story.
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